Golovchenko explains December’s “abnormal” inflation
National Bank Chairman Roman Golovchenko has explained the reasons behind the “virtually zero” inflation observed in Belarus this December. He gave a forecast on what will happen with prices in the country next year.
Golovchenko described the year-end inflation situation in Belarus as “rather abnormal”. “It is practically zero over the three weeks of December,” the head of the National Bank stated on the state TV channel Belarus 1.
Golovchenko named the “disinflationary impact from the Russian economy” as the primary cause of this December price “anomaly”. There, he said, food inflation has “slowed substantially,” which has also been reflected in Belarusian prices.
According to official data from Rosstat (the Russian equivalent of Belstat) as of 22 December, prices in Russia have risen by 0.31% since the start of the month, while annual inflation has slowed to 5.58%. Nevertheless, according to Golovchenko, a sharp spike in prices following such a slowdown is not to be expected.
“For now, we do not see the preconditions for serious shocks that would lead to a surge in prices for goods, as was the case in previous years and in 2025,” emphasised the National Bank chairman.
Commenting on plans for the annual inflation indicator, which this year will be exceeded by almost two percentage points (it was planned that the figure would be no more than 5% by year-end, but by the end of November it had already reached 7%), Golovchenko stated that the National Bank is not abandoning these plans. He said that although the forecast inflation figure for next year is set at the current level of 7%, this threshold “has been set with a certain margin”.
“Because, after all, a great many processes are still underway globally that are not fully understood, and economic turbulence is not abating. But we are not abandoning our goal,” stated the head of the National Bank, promising to “take all measures” to ensure inflation (at least core inflation) in Belarus does not exceed 5%.
It is worth recalling that, in addition to inflation, the National Bank’s approved main monetary policy guidelines for the Republic for 2026 outline four other indicators intended to promote price and financial stability and the country’s sustainable economic development. Their fulfilment, as Golovchenko warned, “will depend on the actual emerging situation”.