Could Ukraine be Belarus's new export route for potash? Lithuania floats scenario
As the United States partially lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash, discussions are intensifying in Lithuania over alternative supply routes, with analysts suggesting Ukraine could emerge as a potential new corridor, Reuters has learned.
Currently, both Lithuania and the European Union maintain sanctions prohibiting the use of their territory for the transit of Belarusian potash. However, this could change. Until February 1, 2022, the Belarusian state-owned producer Belaruskali shipped a significant portion of its potash fertilizers via Lithuania and the port of Klaipėda.
Beyond the possibility that Washington may pressure Vilnius to resume transit, some in Lithuania have raised the prospect of Ukraine becoming the primary export corridor.
As supporting evidence, commentators point to the recent transfer of the last freed political prisoners by Belarusian authorities to Ukraine, despite the near-war footing along their shared border. This, they argue, indicates that channels of communication between Minsk and Kyiv remain open.
Vytis Jurkonis, a lecturer at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, told Lithuanian broadcaster LRT that a scenario where Belarus reroutes its potash exports to the port of Odesa by mutual agreement could be advantageous for Ukraine.
Such a deal could provide Kyiv not only with a crucial source of revenue but also with potential security guarantees for the strategic port of Odesa, provided the United States is interested in purchasing Belarusian potash.
The Lithuanian expert notes that U.S. President Donald Trump is engaged in a trade war with neighboring Canada, Washington’s primary supplier of fertilizers. Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy resources, including potash, and has threatened to further increase duties on Canadian fertilizers.
Therefore, lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash and importing it to America could serve as a tool for the U.S. to pressure Canada through tariff escalation.
«If an alternative route for fertilizers were secured this way, the issue of pressure on Lithuania and Latvia would lose its urgency,» Jurkonis told LRT. «And Ukrainians, I think, have a direct economic interest. There is a security element—Odesa was heavily bombed just days ago. If it were in the interests of the U.S. for these potash fertilizers to be transported and delivered to the States, then, I think, it would align with Ukraine’s interests.»
He added, «Belarusian fertilizers are much cheaper for Americans, providing an alternative to Canadian fertilizers. And the release of political prisoners is something for which neighboring countries and the Belarusian opposition are grateful.»
To date, there have been no public statements from Ukrainian officials or experts regarding a potential transit corridor from Belarus to Odesa.
In Minsk, the stance remains focused on pragmatic export options.
«As for potash, we are ready to export through any ports,» said Natalya Eismont, press secretary for the President of Belarus. «The main factors here are economics, logistics, and economic feasibility. We will ship to wherever it is profitable.»