December to Surprise Belarus? Meteorologists Forecast Weather for First Days of Winter

However, the three leading forecasting models have produced divergent outlooks. According to one of them, frosts could still reach Belarus, though not before December 10.

An expert from the Nadvorie channel reported that after December 10, model forecasts begin to significantly diverge: ECMWF and GEFS favour continued warm weather in Europe, while GFS «votes for cold.»

Consequently, long-term forecasts for the entire month of December are dominated by uncertainty. While the possibility of a snowy Christmas and New Year exists, much depends on how the situation develops by mid-December.

As noted in an analytical report by the Polish publication Interia, «a combination of certain factors increases the probability of a white Christmas.» This refers to a weakening of the polar vortex, which would allow cold air masses to shift southward.

Activity from El Niño in the south will also be an influence. «One of the key regions on the global weather map is the tropical Pacific, where the famous El Niño phenomenon forms. Changes in water temperature in this region have a huge impact on the lives of many people,» the publication quotes meteorologist Arleta Unton.

Meanwhile, according to NOAA forecasts, winter temperatures in Eastern Europe could average 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal. However, a cooling trend towards the end of December still leaves a chance for snowy holidays.

«This winter may surprise us. It will be interesting,» meteorologists concluded.

What can Belarusians expect in the first days of December?

The cautious forecast from Belhydromet, which avoids providing data for more than three days ahead, indicates that on Monday and Tuesday, December 1-2, weather conditions in the country will continue to be determined by an extensive area of high atmospheric pressure.

Predominantly cloudy weather is expected with occasional light precipitation in the form of rain and wet snow. Some areas will naturally experience fog, light glazed frost, and icy patches on roads.

Renowned national meteorologist Dmitry Ryabov confirmed the state weather service’s data, noting that «the first week of December does not herald the start of real winter and will be as warm as the whole of November.» He attributed this to south-western currents continuing to bring warm, moist air into the region.

«Belarus will find itself on the western periphery of a vast anticyclone centred over the Middle Volga region. Therefore, cloudy weather with clear spells will prevail. Significant precipitation is not expected,» Ryabov specified.

The trend of above-zero temperatures and a lack of significant precipitation will continue into the middle of the week. Fog is expected in some areas at night and in the morning, which, combined with temperatures near zero, will create conditions for glazed frost.

Weather in Belarus for the first week of December, day by day:

— Monday, December 1: Cloudy. Fog and icy patches in places at night and morning. Night -2..+3°C, daytime -1..+5°C.

— Tuesday, December 2: Cloudy. No significant precipitation. Fog in places at night and morning. Night 0..+3°C, daytime +1..+6°C.

— Wednesday, December 3: Cloudy. Fog in places at night and morning. Night -1..+4°C, daytime +2..+5°C.

— Thursday, December 4: Mainly cloudy. Precipitation unlikely. Night around 0°C, daytime up to +5°C.

— Friday, December 5: Mainly cloudy. Light fog at night and morning. Night 0..+2°C, daytime +3..+5°C.

— Saturday, December 6: Variable cloudiness. Possible brief, light precipitation. Night -2..+4°C, daytime +1..+5°C.

— Sunday, December 7: Variable cloudiness. Isolated light precipitation. Night -2..+3°C, daytime +1..+5°C.

Please note that forecasts beyond three days are often inaccurate. Stay tuned for weather updates.